NBA
Playoff Predictions
Quick review of
how things went down in the final stretch of the season. The Heat’s season came
to a screeching halt, going 11-14 in their final 25 games, and yet they’re
still the second seed in the East. The Bulls pushed through the loss of Derrick
Rose for the second straight year. Or the third, or fourth, I can’t remember
when I last saw him play a whole season. Either way the Bulls locked up the
fourth seed in the East. The Hawks, who lost nearly every game on the back end
of All-Star Weekend, somehow managed to cling to the final seed in the East,
solely because the Knicks suck. But they actually don’t suck, they’re elite
under-performers. Excluding the Knicks, it was business as usual for the bottom
feeders of the East, although the Cavs had their best season since LeBron left
(keep in mind that I watched them all season long and let me tell you, their
season was still a disgrace). The 76ers and Bucks on the other hand pulled off
a pair of the most fantastic tank jobs I’ve ever seen, round of applause for
them.
In the West, the
Spurs took the cake again, topping the Thunder by three games for the 1 seed.
The Rockets and Blazers pulled off a pair of quality seasons, matching up as
the 4 and 5 seeds respectively. Steph Curry made it a point to secure the 6
seed for the Warriors, and Dirk Nowitzki made it a point to prove that he is
still an elite player in this league. Despite having a season that would put
them in the third spot in the East, the Suns missed the playoffs, and the
Timberwolves, with their dominant big man (Kevin Love) posted yet another
sub-.500 season. Literally nothing has changed in the West.
MY PICKS
EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND
Pacers beat the
Hawks 4-2.
Yeah, the Pacers
have been struggling. Every team in the history of the game goes through
slumps; it is inevitable, and it cannot be stopped. So, I don’t care about
their slump. Based on the season series (tied
2-2), I think there will be a couple tight games at the start of the series but
once game 4 rolls around, Indiana will be back on cruise control and take the series
in 6 games.
Heat beat the
Bobcats 4-1.
I want to say
that the Bobcats can win a couple games against the Heat, since Miami has
noticeably declined and the Bobcats are suddenly somewhat decent. Even when Al
Jefferson had his monster game against the Heat, LeBron said no. The King went
for 61 points, proving to be too much to handle, as the Heat powered out a win
against Charlotte. The Bobcats just won’t be able to contain LeBron, no matter
how many games D-Wade misses.
Nets beat the
Raptors 4-2.
Out of all the
scenarios I’ve played out in my mind, I can’t picture a series that the Nets
don’t win in. This is a series between the grizzly vets of the league against
some rising talents. Combined, KG and Paul Pierce have 267 playoff appearances.
The Nets also have experience in Jason Collins, Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko,
Joe Johnson, and of course their first year coach Jason Kidd. Meanwhile the
Raptors don’t have much experience at all, and experience tends to serve as an
advantage in the playoffs.
Bulls beat the
Wizards 4-3.
John Wall and
company will prove to be a tough test for the Bulls, as they finally have a
shot to prove to doubters what they’re capable of. These Wizards aren’t the
same as the post-Arenas era Wizards. The front office has put together a team
around John Wall. Wall and Gortat run a solid pick-n-roll, and players like
Bradley Beal and Trevor Ariza provide outlets for Wall. They’re a solid
defensive team as well, and have had a great season. BUT, they’re playing the
Bulls and I think experience will come in to play again. The main issue for the
Wizards will be stopping Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer, two big men who are
both more talented and experienced than any big man on Washington. Hinrich will
provide perimeter shooting along with the growing Jimmy Butler, who is a
potentially dangerous threat on both sides of the ball. I think this will be
the most exciting first round series to watch (in the East) since we have two
teams with relatively equal talent squaring off. Washington has the better
guard play and the Bulls have the better big men. Bulls however, have Tom
Thibodeau on the sidelines, so I give the edge to Chicago in 7 games, although
this series can really go either way.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND
Spurs beat the
Mavericks 4-1.
Let’s face the
facts; the Mavericks are a very good team, but stand next to no chance of
beating the Spurs in a 7-game series. In the regular season, the Spurs won all
four head-to-head contests. The Spurs have the best coach in the NBA and the
most experienced roster in the league, and arguably the deepest, except for
perhaps the Clippers. Aside from Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili, the Spurs
possess a lethal shooter in Danny Green, a rising all-star in Kawhi Leonard,
and an up-and-coming center in Tiago Splitter. Coming off the bench aside from
Ginobili, San Antonio has excellent role players in Boris Diaw, Matt Bonner,
Corey Joseph, Patty Mills, (Mills has the potential to be a huge threat) and
another shooter in Marco Belinelli. They are loaded with talent and are so well
connected with each other on the court. The Mavs have a solid roster, but just can’t
compete. Asides from Dirk, they have Monta Ellis, Jose Calderon, and the
rapidly aging bodies of Samuel Dalembert, Shawn Marion, and Vince Carter. I
would have the Spurs sweeping Dallas but going 8-0 against a single team in a
season is slightly absurd, and rest assured, Dirk will not go down easy. No matter
what, I don’t expect the Mavericks to win more than a game in these playoffs.
Thunder beat the
Grizzlies 4-2.
Obviously the
Thunder have their weapons in KD and Westbrook, along with the greatly improved
Serge Ibaka. Thabo Sefolosha represents a defensive presence on the perimeter,
and OKC also has the young Reggie Jackson and experience in Caron Butler. Oh,
and we can’t forget about Mr. Big Shot himself, D-Fish! The Grizzlies would
have much higher odds to win this series if they could shoot the ball. They
struggle trying to put up points, and despite their stellar defense their lack
of offense is disturbing, Memphis doesn’t bode well against teams of the
Thunder’s caliber (high scoring and fast-paced.) That’s why I have Scotty
Brooks leading his team past the Grizzlies in six games.
Warriors beat
the Clippers 4-2.
DeAndre Jordan
is going to have a field day on the glass all throughout this series, Chris
Paul will play well as always, and Blake Griffin will put up solid
double-double numbers. But I have the Warriors winning in six games, despite
the injury to Andrew Bogut. Bogut is a HUGE loss for Golden State, and he is
the most underrated impact player that I can think of. But Golden State has
been in something of a shooting slump down the final stretch of the year, and
recently the “Splash Brothers” have been getting their opponents wet again.
Curry has been nothing short of amazing in April, and Klay Thompson is finally
scoring the ball at a decent percentage again. David Lee is a consistent double-double
player who brings experience to the table. The Warriors have an underrated
bench as well, with Steve Blake, Harrison Barnes and Jermaine O’Neal fronting
the second unit. O’Neal is going to have to step up big this postseason if the
Warriors want to stay in the race, and I think he has a few clutch performances
left in him. I’m picking the Warriors because they have a hot hand and
consistent bigs. Mainly, though, I don’t trust the Clippers. They choked last
year in the first round, and I fear that they’ll do the same.
Rockets beat the
Blazers 4-3.
I originally had
the Blazers winning this series when I first saw the matchup. Then I remembered
that the Rockets are definitively better. Houston won three of their four
regular season meetings, and both teams scored triple digits in every game.
This series will be a high-scoring affair since both teams allow over 100
points a game, and I would even expect multiple players on both sides to
average upwards of 20 points a game. Both teams are near equal in talent, with
great starting matchups. (Lillard-Beverley, Batum-Harden, Matthews-Parsons, Aldridge-Jones,
and Lopez-Howard)
The starting
lineups are dead even, but it’s the bench that makes me believe that Houston
has the advantage. Houston has Asik coming off the bench, along with Lin,
Garcia, and Casspi. The only notable player that can make an impact on
Portland’s bench is Mo Williams. Advantage Rockets in a game 7 shoot-out.
EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
Pacers beat the
Bulls 4-2.
The Pacers at
this point will be back to their normal selves, playing with the typical
high-energy style that we’re used to seeing. I think Roy Hibbert will resume
his stellar postseason performances and Paul George will have regained control
of his team. The Bulls will be able to compete with the Pacers enough to win a
couple games, but not nearly enough to win four out of seven. I expect Lance
Stephenson, this year’s leader in triple-doubles, to be the X-factor in this
series. I think he’ll eat the Bulls alive on defense, offense, and especially
in transition. The Bulls don’t have the pieces to guard both George and
Stephenson at once, and when push comes to shove, Thibodeau will put Jimmy
Butler on George, leaving Mike Dunleavy and Tony Snell to guard Stephenson. I
got the Pacers advancing in six games.
Heat beat the
Nets 4-3.
Both teams are
made up of veterans and all-stars, with some young talent sprinkled in.
However, the Heat’s all-stars are current, and the Nets all-stars are no longer
elite players. I think the Nets have enough talent to force the Heat to seven
games, simply because of Dwayne Wade’s knees. He won’t be able to defend Pierce
and Johnson for seven games in a row; Wade will have to sit out at least once
in each series if he wants to be able to play at a high level. LeBron will be
able to pick up the slack and eventually overcome the Nets in seven games. The
Nets just don’t have enough quality defenders to stop LeBron and company in a
seven game series.
WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
Spurs beat the
Rockets 4-2.
The Spurs, as I
previously mentioned, are loaded. The Rockets have a full lineup too, with a
solid bench, but we all know that the Spurs are better, and that they don’t
lose in a seven game series to teams who aren’t as good. Obviously anything can
happen, as we saw in last year’s NBA Finals. But the Rockets? I’m not sold. I
see Tony Parker getting whatever he wants with Patrick Beverley and Duncan will
drop a double-double every game. The Spurs will do what they do best; play
their game. It’s just not the time for Houston, but if Dwight Howard sticks around
they’ll have their chance at a title very soon.
Warriors beat
the Thunder 4-3.
Losing Bogut is
huge for Golden State, but only on the defensive end. On the offensive end, the
floor opens up, allowing Curry and Thompson to get their open shots. Curry also
has the pick-n-roll with David Lee, and the drive-and-kick will be open
throughout the entire playoffs. The open space on the offensive end will be
what allows the Warriors to beat the Clippers, and it will be what allows them
to knock off the Thunder as well. YES, I said that. I am picking Golden State
because I think that they give OKC a bad matchup. Iguodala won’t be able to
stop KD, but he will make it difficult. It will free up Westbrook a little bit,
but he won’t be able to beat the Warriors by himself. David Lee and Jermaine
O’Neal will limit Ibaka’s offensive production, ultimately putting pressure on
other players to step up. Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes are two extremely
underrated assets for Golden State; Harrison Barnes specifically started all
season and averaged 16 points and 6 boards in the playoffs lasts season. The
Warriors are a good mixture of young and old, but the difference between this
year and last year is that they now believe in themselves, and they know what
they’re capable of. One year makes a big difference and I think they’ll top the
Thunder in seven games to advance to the Western Conference Finals.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Pacers beat the
Heat 4-3.
Yes, I think we
all are thinking of this ECF rematch. Pacers vs. Heat, LeBron vs. Paul George.
I’ve been saying since the all-star break that the Heat don’t have what it
takes to beat the Pacers. For the second straight series, Lance Stephenson will
be the deciding factor in the series. If you think that Dwayne Wade will be
able to keep Stephenson in check for seven games then you have another thing
coming. Wade won’t be able to keep up with the explosive speed of Stephenson;
he will get eaten alive on both ends of the court. Hibbert/West will outmatch
Chris Bosh and that leaves LeBron to save the day. We all know what happens
when LeBron has to win playoff games by himself; he doesn’t. This little Miami
fantasy team was cute while it lasted but their time is done; Indiana is the
clear-cut best team in the East, and they’ll take this series in seven games,
sending the Heat packing.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Spurs beat the Warriors
4-3.
The best teams
generally advance to the NBA Finals, and the Spurs are still the best in the
West. There’s not a whole lot to see about this series, except that San Antonio
scores more points than Golden State does, and they also allow less. The
Warriors aren’t as deep as the Spurs, and they aren’t nearly as defensively
sound. Without Bogut, Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter will have their ways in the
paint. Duncan score and grabs rebounds no matter who guards him, and if he gets
double-teamed he’ll drop it off to Splitter on the opposite block. The Warriors
will pose a threat to the Spurs offensively, but Pop always has a defensive
scheme for every team. Pop is the best coach in the NBA, and he’s coaching the
best team in the NBA. I have the Spurs over the Warriors in seven games,
although there is a good chance of the series ending earlier than that.
NBA FINALS
Spurs beat the
Pacers 4-3.
I think the
Spurs will be back in the Finals, and the Pacers will meet them there. It will
be a tight-knit battle for seven games, but I have the Spurs coming out on top.
The Pacers just can’t matchup with Pop’s team yet. Parker will outplay Hill,
Duncan/Splitter will outplay Hibbert/West, Danny Green and Marco Belinelli will
outshoot the entire Pacers team from deep, and most importantly Kawhi Leonard
will contain Paul George and Lance Stephenson. The Spurs own the deciding
factors on and off the court; Pop on the sidelines and three-point shooting.
Danny Green has proven what he can do to teams in the playoffs, and it’s not
good for the opposing competition. During this season, the Spurs and Pacers
were 12th and 22nd respectively in three-pointers made,
and 1st and 17th respectively in three-point percentage.
The Spurs won 62 games in the extremely competitive West, while the Pacers won
56 games in the lowly East. It’s a six-game difference by record, but a much
bigger difference in strength of schedule. The biggest problem for Indiana is
that the Spurs will suppress Stephenson’s high energy, which will ultimately
put more pressure on George to step up. There are too many factors that place
the Pacers a few steps behind the Spurs, but they have enough talent,
composure, and experience to compete, which is why I have the Pacers pushing
the series to seven games but ultimately falling short of a championship.
No comments:
Post a Comment