NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Saturday Games

Joe Flacco pulled off another playoff upset over his divisional rival. Cam Newton won his first playoff game facing an injury-riddled team.. The Bengals fell to 0-6 in the postseason-limelight under Marvin Lewis. The Cowboys scored 17 straight second-half points to knock off the Lions in the closest of all the wild-card games.

That summed up the wild-card round action, but much more went on behind the scenes. But none of that matters at the moment, because the Divisional Round weekend is knocking on the door.

The New England region has been bursting with confidence for the better part of this season, but as they get ready to host the Baltimore Ravens at 4:35 PM ET today, that confidence has seen a dip. Ever since the Ravens beat the Steelers last Saturday, Pats fans have been voicing their nerves.

The Ravens have won 2 out of 3 playoff games against the Pats, all of which were played at Gilette. Pats fans remember that playoff loss to the Ravens in 2013 that prevented them from returning to the Super Bowl, and the loss in 2010 that knocked them out in the wild-card round. They could have very well lost in 2012 as well, but the trusty Billy Cundiff shanked a 32-yard field goal that would have sent the game to overtime. So do Pats fans have a reason to be worried? Yes.

Just think about where the Ravens hold advantages. They have the better running backs, the better wide receivers, and a better run defense. It’s not far-fetched to say that they have a good chance of winning.

But the Pats have a winning way about them right now. Tom Brady knows that his time to win another Super Bowl is slowly but surely coming to a close, and this year is as good as any to make it happen. He has the best receiving core that he’s seen in a few years, Gronk is healthy, the run game is stronger than it usually is, and the defense has been holding their own.

I think there are certain players for each team that are essential to success for their respective sides. The x-factor for the Ravens is Justin Forsett. It may be a bit of an obvious one, but he needs to play well if their going to win. More often then not, Flacco can’t throw the ball downfield until the defense is forced to guard the run. Forsett needs to get going early, so Flacco can open up the defense and throw the ball downfield to Steve and Torrey Smith. If they’re able to do that, the game well weigh to their side of the scale.

For the Patriots, their x-factor is Julian Edelman. I’ve seen it too many times this year; the Pats open up the game with short crossing patterns, quick out routes, mini curls and screens to Edelman. He is the key to their first quarter scoring. Every defense knows they have to defend the short passes or else Brady will march down the field without hesitating. This leaves Gronk and Brandon LaFell open to work the secondary. The Patriots are the hardest team to stop when they do this, which is why Edelman needs to get involved early.

My pick to win is the Patriots. If I was a Patriots fan I would be shaking in my sleep, but I think Brady carries them to a victory at home today.

We head to Seattle, Washington for the second Saturday game at 8:15 PM ET. The 12th Man at CenturyLink Field will try their best to put an end to the Panthers’ run. They have been raring to go since the final whistle of the regular season, and they finally get back under the bright lights tonight.

On paper, the Seahawks win 10 times out of 10. But we all know that things don’t always go according to plan in January. So we can’t count the Panthers out just yet, but they have a slippery hill to climb in a short period of time (sorry for the poor rhyme).

Cam Newton will have his hands full against the Legion of Boom tonight, and if you think Richard Sherman isn’t going to be all in Kelvin Benjamin’s shirt tonight you got another thing coming, and that brings me to the reason why Seattle will win.

The Panthers have one of the shallowest receiving cores in the NFL, and it starts with rookie Kelvin Benjamin. He had a great year, and because of that he’ll be the guy Seattle focuses on. This will leave Jerricho Cotchery as the wideout that Newton resorts to. He only caught 48 balls and 1 touchdown this year, which doesn’t look promising.

Greg Olsen will be the go-to-guy, but expect Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright to be all over him, some of the best cover-linebackers in the league.

Many things need to happen for the Panthers tonight, but Jonathan Stewart will be their x-factor. He’s been running exceptionally well over the last month or so, and will need to be even better today if the Panthers are going to move the ball up the field.

As for the Seahawks, they just need to play their game. Hand the ball to Lynch, run play-action, hit their quick slants and out routes. As long as the Seahawks don’t turn the ball over, they should be fine, which is why Russell Wilson is my x-factor. He doesn’t need to be special, just smart. Wilson is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the league, and he’ll need to live up to that reputation tonight. I see him rushing for close to 100 yards, and throwing for 200-250. The Panthers are good at flushing quarterbacks out of the pocket, but unfortunately for them, Wilson is one of the best there it is at escaping.

I have the Seahawks on top in this one.

Check back tomorrow morning for my analysis on tomorrow’s games, and follow me on Twitter @coochigross. Be Sure to check out @BSzabo24’s analysis as well.

NFL Playoffs: Wild-Card Round Predictions with Analysis

The NFL Playoffs. When fantasy football becomes a non-factor, and fans are able to root for their favorite teams and players without any conflicting interests. This is truly the best time of the football season, and there’s a lot of question marks this year, which is nothing new.

Will the Cowboys choke, or are they for real? How far can Ryan Lindley take the Cardinals? Are the Panthers as bad as their record says? Do the Seahawks have what it takes to repeat? Is Peyton Manning healthy?

All these questions, and more, will be answered in due time.

AFC WILD-CARD ROUND

6) Baltimore Ravens @ 3) Pittsburgh Steelers: win 24-20

Season Series: tied 1-1

The two regular season matchups between these long-time division rivals went two completely different ways. In the week 2 meeting, the Ravens won 26-6. They held Big Ben to just 219 passing yards and an interception, and won the turnover battle 3-0. But in the second meeting win week 9, Roethlisberger aired it out for 340 yards and 6 touchdowns to 5 different receivers.

Both games were decided in the passing game, and I think that’s how this wild-card matchup will play out. I was prepared to say this game would revolve around the ground attack of Le’Veon Bell and Justin Forsett, but with Bell out, the Steelers will have to resort to Big Ben and his multitude of weapons.

Josh Harris is scheduled to start at running back this week (courtesy of @BloggerSoDear), and has 9 career carries for just 16 yards. Ben Tate was recently signed as insurance, but the run game will be an afterthought on Saturday nonetheless.

The Ravens are a dangerous playoff team, as we’ve seen in the past. But I don’t see enough talent on either side of the ball this year for them to do much damage. But I can’t rule out a big game from Joe Flacco, for as inconsistent as he is, he can still obliterate a defense from time to time.

That being said, I have Pittsburgh on top in a tight game.

5) Cincinnati Bengals @ 4) Indianapolis Colts: Bengals win 29-27

Season Series: Colts 1-0

I know I’m going out on a limb here, but this is my surprise pick of the wild-card round. The Bengals are 7-20 in primetime game sunder Marvin Lewis, including an 0-5 playoff record. But the positive news is that they had a huge Monday night win against the Broncos, securing their own playoff birth while knocking Denver out of contention for the top seed.

In week 7, the Colts stomped out the “Bungals” 27-0 in an embarrassing performance. But Cincy has won 5 of their last 7, established a lethal, two-pronged, ground game behind Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard. The running attack will lead the Bengals by the Colts, who are in the bottom half of the league in defending the run.

Andrew Luck and company have plenty of options to go to: four different players have caught at least 6 touchdowns this year, and that doesn’t even include Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks or recently active Donte Moncrief, all of whom are viable targets and have 9 collective scores.

The Bengals defense will have their hands full, but like I said: this is my upset pick of the wild-card round. They don’t have a great run defense, but the Colts have a sub-par ground game. Cincy does, however, force the 3rd most interceptions, and the 9th most incompletions. This will be another close game through and through.

NFC WILD-CARD ROUND

5) Arizona Cardinals @ 4) Carolina Panthers: Cardinals win 19-17

Season Series: tied 0-0

This game is probably the hardest to predict. The Panthers are sporadic, and we never know what team will show up. The Cardinals are down to their third string quarterback, who has thrown just 2 touchdowns in his 9 career games, while tossing 11 picks and fumbling 4 times.

But the Cardinals saving grace will be their defense, which allowed a 5th best 18.7 points per game. Although they only score 19.4 points per game, the Panthers defense allows 23.4 per contest.

The Birds will be playing in Carolina despite winning 4 more games through the course of the season. I think the Cardinals elite secondary led by Patrick Peterson will be just what they need to slow the Panthers, who won 4 straight to make the playoffs. Cam Newton has been responsible for 8 touchdowns during the 3 games he’s been healthy for in that stretch, while only throwing one interception.

No matter who plays on the offensive side of the ball, this game will be about defense, and defense alone. I think the injury-riddled Cards have just enough to squeak by the Panthers.

6) Detroit Lions @ 3) Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys win 31-23

This is the matchup I’m anticipating most. These are the two best wild-card teams in my mind, in both the AFC and NFC. The Cowboys went an unbelievable 8-0 on the road, while no other team won more than 5 road games. Although they only went 4-4 at home, two of those losses came while Romo was hurt.

Both of these teams got shafted in the seeding, but they both have what it takes to overcome it. The Cowboys arguably have the most lethal big 3 we’ve seen in years (Romo, Murray, Bryant), and the Lions arguably have the most lethal quarterback-receiver tandem we’ve seen in years (Stafford and Johnson).

Both teams have disappointed in the past, and are looking to prove themselves this year. They both have great all-around teams, but I’m giving Dallas the edge. Detroit does possess the third best defense in the league, but Dallas takes pride in their 5th best offense, which puts up 29 points a game.

Obviously, this game can go either way. But Dallas is playing some of the best football in the league right now, and I think they’re second only to Seattle. Yes, I even think they’re better than New England, Denver and Green Bay. Taking that into account, I see Dallas winning this thriller, and their first playoff game since 2009, and just their second since 1996.