NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Sunday Games

Yesterday’s games were about as good as we wanted them to be. The Ravens took the Pats down to the wire before coming up short in the final minutes. In the night game, the Panthers hung around for the first 3 quarters, but the Seahawks scored 17 straight to open the fourth to seal the victory.

But we’re only halfway through the weekend, and we have two games today that will provide just as much excitement, if not more.

Lambeau Field plays host to the Packers and Cowboys in the first game at 1:05 PM ET, and the conditions are just what one would expect. As Desmond Purnell of the NFL Network reported at 11:00 this morning, the cup of water he poured 90 minutes ago had frozen solid. The temperature was 21 degrees with a dreadful wind chill of 15 degrees.

“The Frozen Tundra” will live up to it’s name today, which should mean that both sides will go run heavy, despite having quarterbacks that own the top two passer ratings of all-time, and this season. The winds and the cold air will knock the ball down, which plays into the hands of the Cowboys.

Obviously DeMarco Murray was the best back in the league this year, and I think he needs to get the ball at LEAST 25 times today. Anything shy of that is not enough, considering they’re up against the 10th worst run defense.

When Romo does drop back, he needs the protection that he got in the regular season; not the protection that he saw last week against Detroit. I expect the Packers to rush at least 5 guys on every play, and stack the box on every first down play.

Taking that into account, the x-factor for America’s team is the offensive line. They’ve been fantastic all year, but they are young and inexperienced which could have been one reason for their poor play last week. The Lions do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but that’s no excuse. The Cowboys line needs to execute their schemes, or they will not score nearly enough points to match Green Bay’s offense, and they will ultimately lose. They need to get out on their pull blocks and meet the linebackers and defensive ends; they cannot let Green Bay’s front 7 initiate the contact, or it will be a long day for everyone.

The Packers, on the other hand, need to establish the run early. When Eddie Lacy gets going early, the Packers find themselves in a good position. It opens up the defense and Aaron Rodgers’ options, and that can be fatal to an opposing defense. But their x-factor is on the flip side of the ball.

Yes, for me, Julius Peppers is the key to the Packers victory today. The 34-year old defensive end/linebacker swatted 11 balls this year, sacked the quarterback 7 times and forced 4 fumbles, and took TWO interceptions to the house. The Packers were 6-1 when he swatted a pass, and 4-2 when he got to the quarterback. He’s been wrecking havoc all year long, and he is a bona fide playmaker. Peppers needs to generate pressure on the Cowboys offensive line, whether it’s against the run or the pass. Clay Matthews is the head of the snake, but Peppers brings the heart. His time to win a Super Bowl is winding down, so you better believe he’s going to bring all he is to the table.

The weather is favoring the run in this game, so I’m rolling with the league’s best running attack to win this game and advance to the NFC title game to take on the Seahawks. Cowboys win in a close one.

The afternoon game between the Colts and Broncos will be significantly different from the first. Despite being held in the brisk climate of the Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium, it will be a pure passing environment. All signs point towards a shootout, and Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are welcoming that prospect.

The Broncos finished the season 3-1, but Peyton threw for a mere 3 touchdowns and 6 picks in those games. It doesn’t look promising for Denver coming in, considering Peyton is hobbled and banged up.

But for the last few weeks, I feel like the Broncos have been lulling teams into a false light. A Peyton Manning-led offense has never run the ball this much, except for perhaps the early days of his career with Edgerrin James. The second-year Cal product C.J. Anderson has averaged over 23 carries over the last 6 games, and he’s tallied 9 total touchdowns including two 3-score games in that time.

It’s important that John Fox cannot forget about the run today. The Colts will pass, pass and pass some more. If they Colts take an early lead, the Broncos need to stick with the run. Against the 15th worst run defense, Anderson is my x-factor for Denver today, and if Peyton still is a tad banged up, Anderson will be key in helping the Broncos advance. Of course Peyton still has the ability to carry a team to victory, but it’s a lot easier when he has a reliable backfield.

The Colts need to take away the run, and as strange as it sounds, force Peyton to stay in the pocket. The Colts want a shootout, and Chuck Pagano has confidence in Andrew Luck to outdo his predecessor.

But their x-factor comes from the tight-end position. Coby Fleener is an upcoming tight end in this league, and a go-to target for Luck. The Colts were a smooth 6-0 when he found the end zone this year, and he needs to show up today. He only caught 1 pass on 2 targets for 18 yards last week against the Bengals, but he’ll need to do more than that in order for the Colts to win their desired shootout. Denver’s linebackers don’t exactly thrive defending the tight end, so expect Luck to go after that.

This is a hard game to predict, but Andrew Luck has sold me on his ability to win games. He’s learned how to do so, and I think he’ll add to his young resume with a win in Denver today.

NFL Playoffs: Wild-Card Round Predictions with Analysis

The NFL Playoffs. When fantasy football becomes a non-factor, and fans are able to root for their favorite teams and players without any conflicting interests. This is truly the best time of the football season, and there’s a lot of question marks this year, which is nothing new.

Will the Cowboys choke, or are they for real? How far can Ryan Lindley take the Cardinals? Are the Panthers as bad as their record says? Do the Seahawks have what it takes to repeat? Is Peyton Manning healthy?

All these questions, and more, will be answered in due time.

AFC WILD-CARD ROUND

6) Baltimore Ravens @ 3) Pittsburgh Steelers: win 24-20

Season Series: tied 1-1

The two regular season matchups between these long-time division rivals went two completely different ways. In the week 2 meeting, the Ravens won 26-6. They held Big Ben to just 219 passing yards and an interception, and won the turnover battle 3-0. But in the second meeting win week 9, Roethlisberger aired it out for 340 yards and 6 touchdowns to 5 different receivers.

Both games were decided in the passing game, and I think that’s how this wild-card matchup will play out. I was prepared to say this game would revolve around the ground attack of Le’Veon Bell and Justin Forsett, but with Bell out, the Steelers will have to resort to Big Ben and his multitude of weapons.

Josh Harris is scheduled to start at running back this week (courtesy of @BloggerSoDear), and has 9 career carries for just 16 yards. Ben Tate was recently signed as insurance, but the run game will be an afterthought on Saturday nonetheless.

The Ravens are a dangerous playoff team, as we’ve seen in the past. But I don’t see enough talent on either side of the ball this year for them to do much damage. But I can’t rule out a big game from Joe Flacco, for as inconsistent as he is, he can still obliterate a defense from time to time.

That being said, I have Pittsburgh on top in a tight game.

5) Cincinnati Bengals @ 4) Indianapolis Colts: Bengals win 29-27

Season Series: Colts 1-0

I know I’m going out on a limb here, but this is my surprise pick of the wild-card round. The Bengals are 7-20 in primetime game sunder Marvin Lewis, including an 0-5 playoff record. But the positive news is that they had a huge Monday night win against the Broncos, securing their own playoff birth while knocking Denver out of contention for the top seed.

In week 7, the Colts stomped out the “Bungals” 27-0 in an embarrassing performance. But Cincy has won 5 of their last 7, established a lethal, two-pronged, ground game behind Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard. The running attack will lead the Bengals by the Colts, who are in the bottom half of the league in defending the run.

Andrew Luck and company have plenty of options to go to: four different players have caught at least 6 touchdowns this year, and that doesn’t even include Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks or recently active Donte Moncrief, all of whom are viable targets and have 9 collective scores.

The Bengals defense will have their hands full, but like I said: this is my upset pick of the wild-card round. They don’t have a great run defense, but the Colts have a sub-par ground game. Cincy does, however, force the 3rd most interceptions, and the 9th most incompletions. This will be another close game through and through.

NFC WILD-CARD ROUND

5) Arizona Cardinals @ 4) Carolina Panthers: Cardinals win 19-17

Season Series: tied 0-0

This game is probably the hardest to predict. The Panthers are sporadic, and we never know what team will show up. The Cardinals are down to their third string quarterback, who has thrown just 2 touchdowns in his 9 career games, while tossing 11 picks and fumbling 4 times.

But the Cardinals saving grace will be their defense, which allowed a 5th best 18.7 points per game. Although they only score 19.4 points per game, the Panthers defense allows 23.4 per contest.

The Birds will be playing in Carolina despite winning 4 more games through the course of the season. I think the Cardinals elite secondary led by Patrick Peterson will be just what they need to slow the Panthers, who won 4 straight to make the playoffs. Cam Newton has been responsible for 8 touchdowns during the 3 games he’s been healthy for in that stretch, while only throwing one interception.

No matter who plays on the offensive side of the ball, this game will be about defense, and defense alone. I think the injury-riddled Cards have just enough to squeak by the Panthers.

6) Detroit Lions @ 3) Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys win 31-23

This is the matchup I’m anticipating most. These are the two best wild-card teams in my mind, in both the AFC and NFC. The Cowboys went an unbelievable 8-0 on the road, while no other team won more than 5 road games. Although they only went 4-4 at home, two of those losses came while Romo was hurt.

Both of these teams got shafted in the seeding, but they both have what it takes to overcome it. The Cowboys arguably have the most lethal big 3 we’ve seen in years (Romo, Murray, Bryant), and the Lions arguably have the most lethal quarterback-receiver tandem we’ve seen in years (Stafford and Johnson).

Both teams have disappointed in the past, and are looking to prove themselves this year. They both have great all-around teams, but I’m giving Dallas the edge. Detroit does possess the third best defense in the league, but Dallas takes pride in their 5th best offense, which puts up 29 points a game.

Obviously, this game can go either way. But Dallas is playing some of the best football in the league right now, and I think they’re second only to Seattle. Yes, I even think they’re better than New England, Denver and Green Bay. Taking that into account, I see Dallas winning this thriller, and their first playoff game since 2009, and just their second since 1996.