NFL Championship Weekend: Analysis and Predictions

With this frigid January weather comes nothing else but the NFL Championship weekend. At 3:05 PM ET the Seattle Seahawks will play host to the Green Bay Packers, and the wind will be roaring just as load as the “12^th Man.”

The wind is expected to be blowing at speeds no less than 15 miles per hour at game time, with a ceiling of 21 miles per hour. It will be a tough day for kickers and quarterbacks, and that plays into Seattle’s hand. In addition to that wind, the rain is coming down fast and hard at CenturyLink Field.

After last week’s win against Dallas, Aaron Rodgers was quoted saying that he thinks he only has 120 minutes left in him. His hobbled calf is the reason for him saying that, but he isn’t shying away from anyone.

Everyone knows that he can’t move like he normally does, and because of that he isn’t nearly as effective. Like Dallas, Seattle is going to try and make him throw the ball. They take pride in their run defense, and their 3rd ranked front 7 will do everything in their power to stifle the Packers ground game.

Packers head coach Mike McCarthy will need some creative run schemes to break through into Seattle’s secondary. With the intense wind, moving the ball through the air will be difficult as it is, and with the NFL’s best secondary on the other side, it just magnifies Green Bay’s problem.

When Rodgers drops back, he needs to send Eddie Lacy, John Kuhn or James Starks into the flat. Also, he’ll have to keep Lacy or Kuhn on his blindside. Rodger’s calf injury needs extra protecting, and I expect that will be John Kuhn’s primary assignment.

Kuhn is the x-factor for Green Bay today; he needs to be able to do it all. Lead blocking for Lacy and Starks is his first task, but he has more to do. Kuhn is an excellent blocker, and he’ll be in the backfield on the majority of Rodgers’ drop backs to help protect his blindside.

Also expect to see Kuhn in a lot of short yardage situations, both pass and run. He’ll be in to generate a push over the line of scrimmage, whether he gets the ball or not. He’ll also be sent to the flat to pick up short yardage, and that can be on every down. Kuhn is vital to Green Bay’s offensive success every week, but look for him even more today.

But offense isn’t the only issue for Green Bay. They need to figure out how to contain Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson. In Seattle’s 36-16 week 1 beat down of the Pack, Lynch totaled 124 yards and two scores, while Wilson totaled 220 yards and threw for 2 touchdowns.

Seattle dominated every aspect of the game and experts don’t think Green Bay has the necessary personnel to match Seattle’s firepower. Russell Wilson gets it done with one of the weakest receiving cores in the NFL, if not the weakest, and 2 backup tight ends.

Stacking up both sides, Seattle has a clear-cut advantage.

Position	Green Bay	Seattle
Quarterback		Advantage
Running Back		Advantage
Wide Receiver	Advantage
Tight Ends	Neutral	Neutral
Defensive Line		Advantage
Linebackers		Advantage
Defensive Backs		Advantage
Special Teams		Advantage

Seattle is just too good. They have proven themselves time and time again this year, and are playing with more fire than ever. Most people agree that Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas are the two best safeties in the NFL, with Richard Sherman being the best cornerback. With an injured Aaron Rodgers, it’s tough to see the Packers escaping with a win. But with Rodgers’ new pre-snap call, “New York Bozo,” anything is possible. After all, people are calling it the new “Omaha.”

But despite that, Seattle will win the NFC Championship game, and advance to their second straight Super Bowl.

The AFC Title game is a lot more up in the air than the NFC. The Indianapolis Colts will be visiting the New England Patriots on this rainy New England Sunday. Unfortunately for these two teams, they will not escape the rain. There’s a 90 percent chance of precipitation until tomorrow morning, and with the 12 miles per hour wind gusts, this game may also be decided on the ground.

Depending on how muddy the field is, and how hard the rain falls, passing the football may be removed from the game plan. Nobody wants to see a low-scoring, muddy affair to decide who goes to the Super Bowl, but it might be that way.

When these teams go to the pass, they’ll need to use 2-RB sets. One will stay in and block, and the other will release into the flat. Or, both backs will release into the flat. Check downs are the huge source of yardage in rainy/windy games, and I would expect nothing less from Brady and Luck today.

The keys to victory for both sides are dependent on the weather, because both teams are pass-heavy. But the advantage goes to New England, and their x-factor in Shane Vereen.

It’s incredibly difficult for anybody to predict what Patriot running backs will do, but Vereen needs to perform. He excels in the flat, and it cannot be stressed enough: the flat is the key to victory today. The reason the Pats have the advantage is because they have the better backfield. Vereen, LeGarrette Blount and Julian Edelman can and will be utilized.

On the other hand, the Colts really only have youngster Dan Herron. Trent Richardson is out with a family emergency, and that leaves the little-known rookie Zurlon Tipton to fill in as the backup running back. The Colts don’t have a good backfield, and Luck will be forced to carry these Colts to the finish line today.

The Patriots are the favorite here, but if the weather isn’t too formidable, Luck has what it takes to pull off the upset.

Taking the weather into account, and the actives and the inactives, Tom Brady and his Patriots will make it back to the Super Bowl for the 6th time in the Brady-Belichick era.

NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Sunday Games

Yesterday’s games were about as good as we wanted them to be. The Ravens took the Pats down to the wire before coming up short in the final minutes. In the night game, the Panthers hung around for the first 3 quarters, but the Seahawks scored 17 straight to open the fourth to seal the victory.

But we’re only halfway through the weekend, and we have two games today that will provide just as much excitement, if not more.

Lambeau Field plays host to the Packers and Cowboys in the first game at 1:05 PM ET, and the conditions are just what one would expect. As Desmond Purnell of the NFL Network reported at 11:00 this morning, the cup of water he poured 90 minutes ago had frozen solid. The temperature was 21 degrees with a dreadful wind chill of 15 degrees.

“The Frozen Tundra” will live up to it’s name today, which should mean that both sides will go run heavy, despite having quarterbacks that own the top two passer ratings of all-time, and this season. The winds and the cold air will knock the ball down, which plays into the hands of the Cowboys.

Obviously DeMarco Murray was the best back in the league this year, and I think he needs to get the ball at LEAST 25 times today. Anything shy of that is not enough, considering they’re up against the 10th worst run defense.

When Romo does drop back, he needs the protection that he got in the regular season; not the protection that he saw last week against Detroit. I expect the Packers to rush at least 5 guys on every play, and stack the box on every first down play.

Taking that into account, the x-factor for America’s team is the offensive line. They’ve been fantastic all year, but they are young and inexperienced which could have been one reason for their poor play last week. The Lions do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but that’s no excuse. The Cowboys line needs to execute their schemes, or they will not score nearly enough points to match Green Bay’s offense, and they will ultimately lose. They need to get out on their pull blocks and meet the linebackers and defensive ends; they cannot let Green Bay’s front 7 initiate the contact, or it will be a long day for everyone.

The Packers, on the other hand, need to establish the run early. When Eddie Lacy gets going early, the Packers find themselves in a good position. It opens up the defense and Aaron Rodgers’ options, and that can be fatal to an opposing defense. But their x-factor is on the flip side of the ball.

Yes, for me, Julius Peppers is the key to the Packers victory today. The 34-year old defensive end/linebacker swatted 11 balls this year, sacked the quarterback 7 times and forced 4 fumbles, and took TWO interceptions to the house. The Packers were 6-1 when he swatted a pass, and 4-2 when he got to the quarterback. He’s been wrecking havoc all year long, and he is a bona fide playmaker. Peppers needs to generate pressure on the Cowboys offensive line, whether it’s against the run or the pass. Clay Matthews is the head of the snake, but Peppers brings the heart. His time to win a Super Bowl is winding down, so you better believe he’s going to bring all he is to the table.

The weather is favoring the run in this game, so I’m rolling with the league’s best running attack to win this game and advance to the NFC title game to take on the Seahawks. Cowboys win in a close one.

The afternoon game between the Colts and Broncos will be significantly different from the first. Despite being held in the brisk climate of the Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium, it will be a pure passing environment. All signs point towards a shootout, and Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are welcoming that prospect.

The Broncos finished the season 3-1, but Peyton threw for a mere 3 touchdowns and 6 picks in those games. It doesn’t look promising for Denver coming in, considering Peyton is hobbled and banged up.

But for the last few weeks, I feel like the Broncos have been lulling teams into a false light. A Peyton Manning-led offense has never run the ball this much, except for perhaps the early days of his career with Edgerrin James. The second-year Cal product C.J. Anderson has averaged over 23 carries over the last 6 games, and he’s tallied 9 total touchdowns including two 3-score games in that time.

It’s important that John Fox cannot forget about the run today. The Colts will pass, pass and pass some more. If they Colts take an early lead, the Broncos need to stick with the run. Against the 15th worst run defense, Anderson is my x-factor for Denver today, and if Peyton still is a tad banged up, Anderson will be key in helping the Broncos advance. Of course Peyton still has the ability to carry a team to victory, but it’s a lot easier when he has a reliable backfield.

The Colts need to take away the run, and as strange as it sounds, force Peyton to stay in the pocket. The Colts want a shootout, and Chuck Pagano has confidence in Andrew Luck to outdo his predecessor.

But their x-factor comes from the tight-end position. Coby Fleener is an upcoming tight end in this league, and a go-to target for Luck. The Colts were a smooth 6-0 when he found the end zone this year, and he needs to show up today. He only caught 1 pass on 2 targets for 18 yards last week against the Bengals, but he’ll need to do more than that in order for the Colts to win their desired shootout. Denver’s linebackers don’t exactly thrive defending the tight end, so expect Luck to go after that.

This is a hard game to predict, but Andrew Luck has sold me on his ability to win games. He’s learned how to do so, and I think he’ll add to his young resume with a win in Denver today.