Yesterday’s
games were about as good as we wanted them to be. The Ravens took the Pats down
to the wire before coming up short in the final minutes. In the night game, the
Panthers hung around for the first 3 quarters, but the Seahawks scored 17
straight to open the fourth to seal the victory.
But we’re only
halfway through the weekend, and we have two games today that will provide just
as much excitement, if not more.
Lambeau Field
plays host to the Packers and Cowboys in the first game at 1:05 PM ET, and the
conditions are just what one would expect. As Desmond Purnell of the NFL
Network reported at 11:00 this morning, the cup of water he poured 90 minutes
ago had frozen solid. The temperature was 21 degrees with a dreadful wind chill
of 15 degrees.
“The Frozen
Tundra” will live up to it’s name today, which should mean that both sides will
go run heavy, despite having quarterbacks that own the top two passer ratings
of all-time, and this season. The winds and the cold air will knock the ball
down, which plays into the hands of the Cowboys.
Obviously
DeMarco Murray was the best back in the league this year, and I think he needs
to get the ball at LEAST 25 times today. Anything shy of that is not enough,
considering they’re up against the 10th worst run defense.
When Romo does
drop back, he needs the protection that he got in the regular season; not the
protection that he saw last week against Detroit. I expect the Packers to rush
at least 5 guys on every play, and stack the box on every first down play.
Taking that into
account, the x-factor for America’s team is the offensive line. They’ve been
fantastic all year, but they are young and inexperienced which could have been
one reason for their poor play last week. The Lions do have one of the best
defenses in the NFL, but that’s no excuse. The Cowboys line needs to execute
their schemes, or they will not score nearly enough points to match Green Bay’s
offense, and they will ultimately lose. They need to get out on their pull
blocks and meet the linebackers and defensive ends; they cannot let Green Bay’s
front 7 initiate the contact, or it will be a long day for everyone.
The Packers, on
the other hand, need to establish the run early. When Eddie Lacy gets going
early, the Packers find themselves in a good position. It opens up the defense
and Aaron Rodgers’ options, and that can be fatal to an opposing defense. But
their x-factor is on the flip side of the ball.
Yes, for me,
Julius Peppers is the key to the Packers victory today. The 34-year old
defensive end/linebacker swatted 11 balls this year, sacked the quarterback 7
times and forced 4 fumbles, and took TWO interceptions to the house. The
Packers were 6-1 when he swatted a pass, and 4-2 when he got to the
quarterback. He’s been wrecking havoc all year long, and he is a bona fide
playmaker. Peppers needs to generate pressure on the Cowboys offensive line,
whether it’s against the run or the pass. Clay Matthews is the head of the
snake, but Peppers brings the heart. His time to win a Super Bowl is winding
down, so you better believe he’s going to bring all he is to the table.
The weather is
favoring the run in this game, so I’m rolling with the league’s best running
attack to win this game and advance to the NFC title game to take on the
Seahawks. Cowboys win in a close one.
The afternoon
game between the Colts and Broncos will be significantly different from the
first. Despite being held in the brisk climate of the Sports Authority Field at
Mile High Stadium, it will be a pure passing environment. All signs point
towards a shootout, and Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are welcoming that
prospect.
The Broncos
finished the season 3-1, but Peyton threw for a mere 3 touchdowns and 6 picks
in those games. It doesn’t look promising for Denver coming in, considering
Peyton is hobbled and banged up.
But for the last
few weeks, I feel like the Broncos have been lulling teams into a false light.
A Peyton Manning-led offense has never run the ball this much, except for
perhaps the early days of his career with Edgerrin James. The second-year Cal
product C.J. Anderson has averaged over 23 carries over the last 6 games, and
he’s tallied 9 total touchdowns including two 3-score games in that time.
It’s important
that John Fox cannot forget about the run today. The Colts will pass, pass and
pass some more. If they Colts take an early lead, the Broncos need to stick
with the run. Against the 15th worst run defense, Anderson is my x-factor for
Denver today, and if Peyton still is a tad banged up, Anderson will be key in
helping the Broncos advance. Of course Peyton still has the ability to carry a
team to victory, but it’s a lot easier when he has a reliable backfield.
The Colts need
to take away the run, and as strange as it sounds, force Peyton to stay in the
pocket. The Colts want a shootout, and Chuck Pagano has confidence in Andrew
Luck to outdo his predecessor.
But their
x-factor comes from the tight-end position. Coby Fleener is an upcoming tight
end in this league, and a go-to target for Luck. The Colts were a smooth 6-0 when
he found the end zone this year, and he needs to show up today. He only caught
1 pass on 2 targets for 18 yards last week against the Bengals, but he’ll need
to do more than that in order for the Colts to win their desired shootout.
Denver’s linebackers don’t exactly thrive defending the tight end, so expect
Luck to go after that.
This is a hard
game to predict, but Andrew Luck has sold me on his ability to win games. He’s
learned how to do so, and I think he’ll add to his young resume with a win in
Denver today.
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