NFL Championship Weekend: Analysis and Predictions

With this frigid January weather comes nothing else but the NFL Championship weekend. At 3:05 PM ET the Seattle Seahawks will play host to the Green Bay Packers, and the wind will be roaring just as load as the “12^th Man.”

The wind is expected to be blowing at speeds no less than 15 miles per hour at game time, with a ceiling of 21 miles per hour. It will be a tough day for kickers and quarterbacks, and that plays into Seattle’s hand. In addition to that wind, the rain is coming down fast and hard at CenturyLink Field.

After last week’s win against Dallas, Aaron Rodgers was quoted saying that he thinks he only has 120 minutes left in him. His hobbled calf is the reason for him saying that, but he isn’t shying away from anyone.

Everyone knows that he can’t move like he normally does, and because of that he isn’t nearly as effective. Like Dallas, Seattle is going to try and make him throw the ball. They take pride in their run defense, and their 3rd ranked front 7 will do everything in their power to stifle the Packers ground game.

Packers head coach Mike McCarthy will need some creative run schemes to break through into Seattle’s secondary. With the intense wind, moving the ball through the air will be difficult as it is, and with the NFL’s best secondary on the other side, it just magnifies Green Bay’s problem.

When Rodgers drops back, he needs to send Eddie Lacy, John Kuhn or James Starks into the flat. Also, he’ll have to keep Lacy or Kuhn on his blindside. Rodger’s calf injury needs extra protecting, and I expect that will be John Kuhn’s primary assignment.

Kuhn is the x-factor for Green Bay today; he needs to be able to do it all. Lead blocking for Lacy and Starks is his first task, but he has more to do. Kuhn is an excellent blocker, and he’ll be in the backfield on the majority of Rodgers’ drop backs to help protect his blindside.

Also expect to see Kuhn in a lot of short yardage situations, both pass and run. He’ll be in to generate a push over the line of scrimmage, whether he gets the ball or not. He’ll also be sent to the flat to pick up short yardage, and that can be on every down. Kuhn is vital to Green Bay’s offensive success every week, but look for him even more today.

But offense isn’t the only issue for Green Bay. They need to figure out how to contain Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson. In Seattle’s 36-16 week 1 beat down of the Pack, Lynch totaled 124 yards and two scores, while Wilson totaled 220 yards and threw for 2 touchdowns.

Seattle dominated every aspect of the game and experts don’t think Green Bay has the necessary personnel to match Seattle’s firepower. Russell Wilson gets it done with one of the weakest receiving cores in the NFL, if not the weakest, and 2 backup tight ends.

Stacking up both sides, Seattle has a clear-cut advantage.

Position	Green Bay	Seattle
Quarterback		Advantage
Running Back		Advantage
Wide Receiver	Advantage
Tight Ends	Neutral	Neutral
Defensive Line		Advantage
Linebackers		Advantage
Defensive Backs		Advantage
Special Teams		Advantage

Seattle is just too good. They have proven themselves time and time again this year, and are playing with more fire than ever. Most people agree that Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas are the two best safeties in the NFL, with Richard Sherman being the best cornerback. With an injured Aaron Rodgers, it’s tough to see the Packers escaping with a win. But with Rodgers’ new pre-snap call, “New York Bozo,” anything is possible. After all, people are calling it the new “Omaha.”

But despite that, Seattle will win the NFC Championship game, and advance to their second straight Super Bowl.

The AFC Title game is a lot more up in the air than the NFC. The Indianapolis Colts will be visiting the New England Patriots on this rainy New England Sunday. Unfortunately for these two teams, they will not escape the rain. There’s a 90 percent chance of precipitation until tomorrow morning, and with the 12 miles per hour wind gusts, this game may also be decided on the ground.

Depending on how muddy the field is, and how hard the rain falls, passing the football may be removed from the game plan. Nobody wants to see a low-scoring, muddy affair to decide who goes to the Super Bowl, but it might be that way.

When these teams go to the pass, they’ll need to use 2-RB sets. One will stay in and block, and the other will release into the flat. Or, both backs will release into the flat. Check downs are the huge source of yardage in rainy/windy games, and I would expect nothing less from Brady and Luck today.

The keys to victory for both sides are dependent on the weather, because both teams are pass-heavy. But the advantage goes to New England, and their x-factor in Shane Vereen.

It’s incredibly difficult for anybody to predict what Patriot running backs will do, but Vereen needs to perform. He excels in the flat, and it cannot be stressed enough: the flat is the key to victory today. The reason the Pats have the advantage is because they have the better backfield. Vereen, LeGarrette Blount and Julian Edelman can and will be utilized.

On the other hand, the Colts really only have youngster Dan Herron. Trent Richardson is out with a family emergency, and that leaves the little-known rookie Zurlon Tipton to fill in as the backup running back. The Colts don’t have a good backfield, and Luck will be forced to carry these Colts to the finish line today.

The Patriots are the favorite here, but if the weather isn’t too formidable, Luck has what it takes to pull off the upset.

Taking the weather into account, and the actives and the inactives, Tom Brady and his Patriots will make it back to the Super Bowl for the 6th time in the Brady-Belichick era.

Rules in the NFL: Do they penalize the player? Or the game?

The more I watch the NFL, the less football I see. The defensive holding, the pass interference, the roughing the passer and “completing the process” are not football. This is a prominent issue in the NFL, and it needs to be addresses as soon as possible.

This year, the NFL implemented stricter penalties on the defense. It’s all designed to help wide receivers, and it’s unnecessary. There’s a lot of discretion to be used on these calls, and therefore people have lost track of what the rule is.

The referees have been overly energetic this year, particularly in the secondary. Every Sunday, yellow flags would light up the sky. Those same yellow flags drew lots of confusion, but a second look revealed the "penalty."

The replay pops up, and it would show a defensive back brush a wide receiver with his hand or forearm on, say, a crossing route, and the official tosses a flag. It didn't impede the receiver's progress at all, and ultimately had no affect on the play. But more often than not these flags come on third down. There were too many defensive holding calls (5 yards and an automatic first down) extend drives that should have been stopped.

There's a table closer to the bottom of this article, so if you keep reading you'll see just what I mean by referring to the officials as "overly energetic."

This was a call that one of the aforementioned officials made. Keenan Allen was flagged on this play for offensive pass interference. This is the same kind of "contact" that defenders have been flagged for all year.

Now back to defensive holding... A lot of people seem to not know the entirety of the rule, but that's because it's true definition has been lost over the years. But Sportingcharts.com explains it well (To visit their page click here).

"Defense players need to be physical with their opponents, and legally they can. There is a 5 yard area from the line of scrimmage where a defensive player can legally use his hands on an opposing player, but outside of that five-yard mark, if a player holds his opponent, the defense will be assessed a 5 yard penalty and an automatic first down. 

Defensive players are only allowed to use their hands outside the 5 yard zone to protect themselves from "impeding contact" coming from a receiver.

If a pass is deflected or batted down then it's free for defensive players to hold, use their hands/arms, etc."

This defensive "holding" call had an enormous impact on the NFL this year, and most fans and players are of the mindset that it cannot be allowed to continue. Wide receivers already have a huge advantage... They know where they are headed, and the defensive backs do not. That makes it incredibly difficult on the defensive back, and penalties like this prevent them from even touching receivers downfield. It's just overkill.

In an interview with ESPN's Greg Garber, the once star-cornerback for the Oakland Raiders and Philadelphia Eagles, Nnamdi Asomugha, shared his thoughts on the matter. "It's like an all-star game now. Fans want to see points. The higher-ups know that, and make life a lot harder on us. I think -- I don't think, I know -- the cornerback position is the most difficult to play in all of sports."

It's hard to compare positions from different sports, especially individually sports, but a lot of people have said that cornerback is the toughest position in football.

But he is right about one thing; the rules need to change. The scoring averages per game amongst the whole NFL are the highest since 1965, when there were just 14 teams. The main reason for this are these strict calls refs are being forced to make.

And speaking of strict calls, have you guys seen the roughing the passer penalties this year? It’s easier to play Jenga blindfolded than it is to hit a quarterback without being flagged.

The worst, and most pathetic rule to protect a quarterback is that a quarterback can never be hit in the head. No matter how they’re head is hit, or how hard they are it, whether incidental or on purpose, it is a crisp 15-yard penalty. For example, J.J. Watt was rushing Andrew Luck earlier this year. The Colts had the ball in Houston territory, and on a critical 3rd and long Watt was flagged for roughing the passer. He was a few yards away from Luck when the ball was released. Watt leaped forwards, swatted the pass, and his momentum and follow-through caused him to brush the side of Luck’s helmet. The Colts got the first down, scored on that possession, and later won the game.

This scenario is just one of many in which the quarterbacks head played too great a role in a game. But another scenario that is just as bad is the “Brady rule.” It’s another 15-yarder for illegally hitting the quarterback, but this one is for contact below the knees. Just because a tackle below the knees hurt Brady, no one can touch a quarterback below the knees or the flag is flying.

So the only place to hit a quarterback is his midsection. But you have to be careful! If you hit him too hard, it can be considered pile driving the quarterback, which, you guessed it, goes for 15 yards. If you slam the quarterback to the ground: 15 yards. If you lead with your head, it goes for 15 yards.

So you see what I mean?

Here’s a chart to show the penalties called in the entire NFL since 2006. These obviously aren’t all of them, but they are the ones that are facing the most objections from the fans and players.

(Click here for the full website and list of penalties).

Year	Total Number of Penalties	Defensive Holding	Illegal Contact	Roughing the Passer
2006	3046	261	82	102
2007	2930	226	79	60
2008	2867	234	72	58
2009	3031	251	85	67
2010	3100	258	68	86
2011	3288	281	68	100
2012	3213	304	62	93
2013	3135	313	37	89
2014	3386	386	102	98

Things started to take a turn for the worst in 2009, after the “Brady rule” was implemented. Roughing the passer shot way up because of that, and because the numbers haven’t gone down, it shows that the refs are allowed too much discretion, and the defenders aren’t allowed enough leeway when tackling the quarterback.

But the defensive holding calls… It’s unbelievable. The number of times it’s been called has seen a significant rise every year except 2006-07. But none of it, comes close to the abomination of this year’s officiating. 386 defensive holding calls?! That’s 73 more than last year, and that doesn’t even include all the times that it was offset by an offensive penalty, and the times it wasn’t accepted because the catch was made anyways. If you factor all of that in, the number is closer to 450.

And the Illegal Contact penalty saw a dip every year since 2009, until it reached an all-time low, 37 flags in 2013. But wait! It was called an all-time high, 102 times this season, an increase of 65 flags thrown! These numbers speak for themselves, and in my mind, it all boils down to the same thing: Roger Goodell needs to go.

Youtube user Brian Tuohy made a compilation of NFL calls in 2013, and threw in different headlines that expresses the current state of NFL officiating, and the rulebook itself. To check out his video click here. Even though it's all from last year, it's still applicable in most aspects as to what's happening this year.

Bottomline: penalties have too much of an impact on the game of football. Respected NFL Insider Adam Schefter said it perfectly yesterday in a tweet.

“Never good when a rule, not a player, helps decide the game."

And he couldn’t be more accurate.

NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Sunday Games

Yesterday’s games were about as good as we wanted them to be. The Ravens took the Pats down to the wire before coming up short in the final minutes. In the night game, the Panthers hung around for the first 3 quarters, but the Seahawks scored 17 straight to open the fourth to seal the victory.

But we’re only halfway through the weekend, and we have two games today that will provide just as much excitement, if not more.

Lambeau Field plays host to the Packers and Cowboys in the first game at 1:05 PM ET, and the conditions are just what one would expect. As Desmond Purnell of the NFL Network reported at 11:00 this morning, the cup of water he poured 90 minutes ago had frozen solid. The temperature was 21 degrees with a dreadful wind chill of 15 degrees.

“The Frozen Tundra” will live up to it’s name today, which should mean that both sides will go run heavy, despite having quarterbacks that own the top two passer ratings of all-time, and this season. The winds and the cold air will knock the ball down, which plays into the hands of the Cowboys.

Obviously DeMarco Murray was the best back in the league this year, and I think he needs to get the ball at LEAST 25 times today. Anything shy of that is not enough, considering they’re up against the 10th worst run defense.

When Romo does drop back, he needs the protection that he got in the regular season; not the protection that he saw last week against Detroit. I expect the Packers to rush at least 5 guys on every play, and stack the box on every first down play.

Taking that into account, the x-factor for America’s team is the offensive line. They’ve been fantastic all year, but they are young and inexperienced which could have been one reason for their poor play last week. The Lions do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but that’s no excuse. The Cowboys line needs to execute their schemes, or they will not score nearly enough points to match Green Bay’s offense, and they will ultimately lose. They need to get out on their pull blocks and meet the linebackers and defensive ends; they cannot let Green Bay’s front 7 initiate the contact, or it will be a long day for everyone.

The Packers, on the other hand, need to establish the run early. When Eddie Lacy gets going early, the Packers find themselves in a good position. It opens up the defense and Aaron Rodgers’ options, and that can be fatal to an opposing defense. But their x-factor is on the flip side of the ball.

Yes, for me, Julius Peppers is the key to the Packers victory today. The 34-year old defensive end/linebacker swatted 11 balls this year, sacked the quarterback 7 times and forced 4 fumbles, and took TWO interceptions to the house. The Packers were 6-1 when he swatted a pass, and 4-2 when he got to the quarterback. He’s been wrecking havoc all year long, and he is a bona fide playmaker. Peppers needs to generate pressure on the Cowboys offensive line, whether it’s against the run or the pass. Clay Matthews is the head of the snake, but Peppers brings the heart. His time to win a Super Bowl is winding down, so you better believe he’s going to bring all he is to the table.

The weather is favoring the run in this game, so I’m rolling with the league’s best running attack to win this game and advance to the NFC title game to take on the Seahawks. Cowboys win in a close one.

The afternoon game between the Colts and Broncos will be significantly different from the first. Despite being held in the brisk climate of the Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium, it will be a pure passing environment. All signs point towards a shootout, and Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are welcoming that prospect.

The Broncos finished the season 3-1, but Peyton threw for a mere 3 touchdowns and 6 picks in those games. It doesn’t look promising for Denver coming in, considering Peyton is hobbled and banged up.

But for the last few weeks, I feel like the Broncos have been lulling teams into a false light. A Peyton Manning-led offense has never run the ball this much, except for perhaps the early days of his career with Edgerrin James. The second-year Cal product C.J. Anderson has averaged over 23 carries over the last 6 games, and he’s tallied 9 total touchdowns including two 3-score games in that time.

It’s important that John Fox cannot forget about the run today. The Colts will pass, pass and pass some more. If they Colts take an early lead, the Broncos need to stick with the run. Against the 15th worst run defense, Anderson is my x-factor for Denver today, and if Peyton still is a tad banged up, Anderson will be key in helping the Broncos advance. Of course Peyton still has the ability to carry a team to victory, but it’s a lot easier when he has a reliable backfield.

The Colts need to take away the run, and as strange as it sounds, force Peyton to stay in the pocket. The Colts want a shootout, and Chuck Pagano has confidence in Andrew Luck to outdo his predecessor.

But their x-factor comes from the tight-end position. Coby Fleener is an upcoming tight end in this league, and a go-to target for Luck. The Colts were a smooth 6-0 when he found the end zone this year, and he needs to show up today. He only caught 1 pass on 2 targets for 18 yards last week against the Bengals, but he’ll need to do more than that in order for the Colts to win their desired shootout. Denver’s linebackers don’t exactly thrive defending the tight end, so expect Luck to go after that.

This is a hard game to predict, but Andrew Luck has sold me on his ability to win games. He’s learned how to do so, and I think he’ll add to his young resume with a win in Denver today.